Rangers at Maple Leafs — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Rangers at Maple Leafs

New York Rangers(34-39-9)

Toronto Maple Leafs(32-36-14)

Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM EDTTV MSG, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

49%

Rangers

to win

51%

Maple Leafs

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.476vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYR
-.057vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR
.112vs.052GSAx / 60
Home icefavors TOR
TOR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Rangers

Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/60
58% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/60
41% to start350 career GP

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/60
70% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/60
30% to start176 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYR Mike Sullivan · TOR Jim Hiller

Leaders

vs

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.8723rd
Goals for / game: 16th3.07; 3.0415th
Goals against / game: 31st3.60; 24.7%5th
Power play: 15th21.3%; 79.9%15th
Penalty kill: 8th81.2%; 54.5%1st
Faceoffs: 3rd54.2%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 22@this game
Mar 18@
Apr 10@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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