Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres
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Our win probability
and the three reasons
40%Capitals
to win
60%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.516vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.013vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.355vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).