Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals
TV MSG-B, MNMT·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Sabres
to win
52%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.045vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH-.006vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).