New York Islanders at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, MSGSN·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Islanders
to win
58%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.488vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.069vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.078vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH-.034vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).