Capitals at Islanders — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Capitals at Islanders

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Wed, Dec 30, 4:00 PM ESTTV MNMT, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

51%

Capitals

to win

49%

Islanders

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH
.516vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH
.013vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
.165vs.078GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors WSH
.355vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors NYI
NYI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · NYI Peter DeBoer

Leaders

vs

A. Tuch
66
Points
M. Schaefer
59
A. Tuch
33
Goals
B. Horvat
31
D. Strome
39
Assists
M. Schaefer
36

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.1815th
Goals for / game: 25th2.79; 2.907th
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 17.8%25th
Power play: 30th16.5%; 80.1%14th
Penalty kill: 10th80.8%; 49.3%20th
Faceoffs: 5th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 30@this game
Jan 22@
Mar 1@
Mar 17@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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