San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, NBCSCA·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Sharks
to win
55%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.479vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.114vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.137vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSBUF played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).