Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks
TV ESPN, SN360·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Sabres
to win
46%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.045vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.006vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.455th
- Goals for / game
- 17th3.04
- 2.9310th
- Goals against / game
- 30th3.54
- 19.5%21st
- Power play
- 16th21.2%
- 81.9%4th
- Penalty kill
- 26th76.4%
- 45.9%32nd
- Faceoffs
- 26th47.8%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).