Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators
TV SNP, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
32%Canucks
to win
68%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.4–3.6
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.439vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.225vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.089vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT-1.04vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
- Back-to-backfavors VANVAN and OTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VAN Manny Malhotra · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5630th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 3.8332nd
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 21.8%14th
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 71.5%32nd
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 49.3%22nd
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).