Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks
TV SNP, TSN5·Rogers Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
57%Senators
to win
43%
Canucks
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.066vs-.089GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs-1.045v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VANVAN at home
- Back-to-backfavors OTTOTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Canucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · VAN Manny Malhotra
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.358th
- Goals for / game
- 30th2.56
- 2.9913th
- Goals against / game
- 32nd3.83
- 24.0%8th
- Power play
- 14th21.8%
- 75.7%29th
- Penalty kill
- 32nd71.5%
- 54.5%2nd
- Faceoffs
- 22nd49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).