New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights
TV MSG, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Rangers
to win
62%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.476vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.057vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR.114vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.330vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYR Mike Sullivan · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).