Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights
TV NBCSP+, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Flyers
to win
59%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.495vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.009vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors PHI.010vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.465vs.8215v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PHI Rick Tocchet · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).