Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets
TV TSN3, TSN4·Canada Life Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Maple Leafs
to win
57%
Jets
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WPG.479vs.491win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WPG-.113vs-.0485v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG.052vs.117GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WPG-.105vs.0275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WPGWPG at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Jets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · WPG Scott Arniel
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0716th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 3.6031st
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 21.3%15th
- Power play
- 24th18.5%
- 81.2%8th
- Penalty kill
- 21st77.6%
- 54.2%3rd
- Faceoffs
- 9th51.1%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).