Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV SN+, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Jets
to win
50%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WPG.491vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WPG-.048vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG.117vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WPG.027vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersJets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WPG Scott Arniel · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 16th3.07
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 31st3.60
- 18.5%24th
- Power play
- 15th21.3%
- 77.6%21st
- Penalty kill
- 8th81.2%
- 51.1%9th
- Faceoffs
- 3rd54.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).