Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche
TV ALT, NBCSP·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Flyers
to win
62%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.495vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.009vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.010vs.096GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PHI Rick Tocchet · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.9321st
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 2.919th
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 15.7%32nd
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 77.6%22nd
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 49.5%18th
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).