Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers
TV ALT, NBCSP·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Avalanche
to win
45%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs.010GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 21st2.93
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 9th2.91
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 32nd15.7%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 22nd77.6%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 18th49.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).