Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks
TV The Spot, CHSN·United Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
60%Lightning
to win
40%
Blackhawks
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.463win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.2235v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.081GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors CHICHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Blackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · CHI Jeff Blashill
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
P. Kane41
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 30th2.56
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 27th3.29
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 29th16.9%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 2nd83.6%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 31st46.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).