Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, CHSN·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
28%Blackhawks
to win
72%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.3–3.7
- Goes to overtime
- 19%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.463vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.223vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.081vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL-.612vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors CHICHI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CHI Jeff Blashill · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
P. Kane41
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5630th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 3.2927th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 16.9%29th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 83.6%2nd
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 46.0%31st
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).