Canucks at Canadiens — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Canucks at Canadiens

Vancouver Canucks(25-49-8)

Montréal Canadiens(48-24-10)

Sat, Mar 6, 7:00 PM ESTTV SN, TVAS·Centre Bell

Our win probability

and the three reasons

35%

Canucks

to win

65%

Canadiens

Expected goals: 2.5–3.5
Goes to overtime: 21%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL
.439vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL
-.225vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL
-.089vs.129GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors MTL
-1.04vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors MTL
MTL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Canucks

Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/60
42% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/60
41% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/60
10% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/60
8% to start23 career GP

Canadiens

Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/60
62% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/60
38% to start81 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: VAN Manny Malhotra · MTL Martin St. Louis

Leaders

vs

E. Pettersson
51
Points
N. Suzuki
101
J. DeBrusk
23
Goals
C. Caufield
51
F. Hronek
41
Assists
N. Suzuki
72

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.5630th
Goals for / game: 7th3.40; 3.8332nd
Goals against / game: 16th3.06; 21.8%14th
Power play: 10th23.1%; 71.5%32nd
Penalty kill: 18th78.2%; 49.3%22nd
Faceoffs: 11th51.0%

Season series

first meeting

Feb 1@
Mar 6@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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