Canadiens at Canucks — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Canadiens at Canucks

Montréal Canadiens(48-24-10)

Vancouver Canucks(25-49-8)

Mon, Feb 1, 8:30 PM ESTTV SN+, TVAS·Rogers Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

59%

Canadiens

to win

41%

Canucks

Expected goals: 3.3–2.7
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL
.515vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL
-.072vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL
.129vs-.089GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors MTL
.431vs-1.045v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors VAN
VAN at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Canadiens

Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/60
62% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/60
38% to start81 career GP

Canucks

Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/60
42% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/60
41% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/60
10% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/60
8% to start23 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · VAN Manny Malhotra

Leaders

vs

N. Suzuki
101
Points
E. Pettersson
51
C. Caufield
51
Goals
J. DeBrusk
23
N. Suzuki
72
Assists
F. Hronek
41

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.407th
Goals for / game: 30th2.56; 3.0616th
Goals against / game: 32nd3.83; 23.1%10th
Power play: 14th21.8%; 78.2%18th
Penalty kill: 32nd71.5%; 51.0%11th
Faceoffs: 22nd49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Feb 1@this game
Mar 6@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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