St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres
TV STLNHL, BN+·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Blues
to win
58%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.503vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.049vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.058vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.114vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlues
Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/6067% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/6033% to start115 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: STL Jim Montgomery · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.8024th
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 3.1019th
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 17.6%26th
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 76.7%25th
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 49.4%19th
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).