Oilers at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Oilers at Flames

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Wed, Mar 3, 8:30 PM ESTTV Prime·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

54%

Oilers

to win

46%

Flames

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM
.504vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM
.040vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signaleven
.037vs.016GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors EDM
.475vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

C. McDavid
138
Points
M. Coronato
45
C. McDavid
48
Goals
M. Frost
22
C. McDavid
90
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.446th
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 3.2325th
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 30.6%1st
Power play: 31st16.2%; 77.8%20th
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 52.6%6th
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 28@
Mar 3@this game
Mar 23@
Apr 5@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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