Montréal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks
TV Prime Video, KCOP-13·Honda Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Canadiens
to win
46%
Ducks
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.515vs.486win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors ANA-.072vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs-.049GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.431vs.0075v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors ANAANA at home
- Back-to-backfavors MTLANA played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Ducks
Lukas Dostal-0.03 GSAx/6049% to start189 career GP
Ville Husso-0.17 GSAx/6032% to start174 career GP
Laurent Brossoit+0.11 GSAx/6018% to start151 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · ANA Joel Quenneville
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).