Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars
TV Prime Video, The Spot·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Lightning
to win
52%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.523vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.294vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 9th3.33
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 2nd2.71
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 2nd28.6%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 13th80.3%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 7th51.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).