Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV Prime Video, The Spot·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Stars
to win
56%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.038vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.109vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).