Penguins at Wild — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Penguins at Wild

Pittsburgh Penguins(41-25-16)

Minnesota Wild(46-24-12)

Tue, Feb 23, 8:00 PM ESTTV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

49%

Penguins

to win

51%

Wild

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.510vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT
.036vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MIN
-.237vs-.090GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors PIT
1.11vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors MIN
MIN at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Penguins

Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/60
91% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/60
9% to start5 career GP

Wild

Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/60
60% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/60
40% to start50 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · MIN John Hynes

Leaders

vs

S. Crosby
74
Points
K. Kaprizov
89
B. Rust
29
Goals
K. Kaprizov
45
E. Karlsson
51
Assists
Q. Hughes
69

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.543rd
Goals for / game: 10th3.27; 3.1524th
Goals against / game: 4th2.87; 24.1%7th
Power play: 3rd25.2%; 81.4%6th
Penalty kill: 16th79.8%; 48.2%24th
Faceoffs: 30th46.6%

Season series

first meeting

Jan 1@
Feb 23@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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