Wild at Penguins — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Wild at Penguins

Minnesota Wild(46-24-12)

Pittsburgh Penguins(41-25-16)

Fri, Jan 1, 6:00 PM ESTTV MINNHL, Wild+·PPG Paints Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

53%

Wild

to win

47%

Penguins

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.511vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT
.010vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MIN
-.090vs-.237GSAx / 60
Home icefavors PIT
PIT at home
Back-to-backfavors MIN
PIT played yesterday

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Wild

Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/60
60% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/60
40% to start50 career GP

Penguins

Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/60
91% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/60
9% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: MIN John Hynes · PIT Dan Muse

Leaders

vs

K. Kaprizov
89
Points
S. Crosby
74
K. Kaprizov
45
Goals
B. Rust
29
Q. Hughes
69
Assists
E. Karlsson
51

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.2710th
Goals for / game: 3rd3.54; 2.874th
Goals against / game: 24th3.15; 25.2%3rd
Power play: 7th24.1%; 79.8%16th
Penalty kill: 6th81.4%; 46.6%30th
Faceoffs: 24th48.2%

Season series

first meeting

Jan 1@this game
Feb 23@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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