Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers
TV SN+, TVAS·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Senators
to win
57%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM-.066vs.037GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
- Back-to-backfavors OTTOTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.358th
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 2.9913th
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 24.0%8th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 75.7%29th
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 54.5%2nd
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).