Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators
TV SN, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Oilers
to win
55%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.504vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.040vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM.037vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.475vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.446th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 3.2325th
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 30.6%1st
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 77.8%20th
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 52.6%6th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).