Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames
TV SNW, TSN5·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Senators
to win
44%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY-.066vs.016GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · CGY Ryan Huska
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).