Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators
TV SN+·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Flames
to win
63%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.481vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.127vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT-.091vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · OTT Travis Green
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).