Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames
TV SN-PIT, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Penguins
to win
49%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.510vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT.036vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY-.237vs.016GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.543rd
- Goals for / game
- 32nd2.54
- 3.1524th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 24.1%7th
- Power play
- 31st16.2%
- 81.4%6th
- Penalty kill
- 12th80.4%
- 48.2%24th
- Faceoffs
- 21st49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).