Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, SNW·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Flames
to win
62%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.481vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT-.127vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT-.091vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5432nd
- Goals for / game
- 3rd3.54
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 24th3.15
- 16.2%31st
- Power play
- 7th24.1%
- 80.4%12th
- Penalty kill
- 6th81.4%
- 49.3%21st
- Faceoffs
- 24th48.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).