Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames
TV NESN, SN+·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
53%Bruins
to win
47%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BOS.503vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BOS-.058vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.201vs.016GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS.662vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BOS Marco Sturm · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs- Points
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2710th
- Goals for / game
- 32nd2.54
- 3.0114th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 23.4%9th
- Power play
- 31st16.2%
- 77.0%24th
- Penalty kill
- 12th80.4%
- 53.1%4th
- Faceoffs
- 21st49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).