Hurricanes at Maple Leafs — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Hurricanes at Maple Leafs

Carolina Hurricanes(53-22-7)

Toronto Maple Leafs(32-36-14)

Tue, Feb 16, 7:00 PM ESTTV CARNHL, HHN·Scotiabank Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

58%

Hurricanes

to win

42%

Maple Leafs

Expected goals: 3.2–2.8
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR
.542vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR
.162vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR
-.096vs.052GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors CAR
.860vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors TOR
TOR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Hurricanes

Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/60
53% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/60
28% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/60
20% to start58 career GP

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/60
70% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/60
30% to start176 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: CAR Rod Brind'Amour · TOR Jim Hiller

Leaders

vs

S. Aho
80
Points
W. Nylander
79
A. Svechnikov
31
Goals
J. Tavares
31
S. Aho
53
Assists
W. Nylander
49

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.552nd
Goals for / game: 16th3.07; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 31st3.60; 24.9%4th
Power play: 15th21.3%; 80.5%11th
Penalty kill: 8th81.2%; 50.1%16th
Faceoffs: 3rd54.2%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 5@
Feb 16@this game
Mar 5@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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