Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes
TV CARNHL, HHN·Lenovo Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
35%Maple Leafs
to win
65%
Hurricanes
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR.479vs.542win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR-.113vs.1625v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors CAR-.105vs.8605v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CARCAR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Hurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/6053% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/6028% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/6020% to start58 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · CAR Rod Brind'Amour
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).