Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Senators
to win
50%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.515vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.066vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · MIN John Hynes
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.358th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 2.9913th
- Goals against / game
- 4th2.87
- 24.0%8th
- Power play
- 3rd25.2%
- 75.7%29th
- Penalty kill
- 16th79.8%
- 54.5%2nd
- Faceoffs
- 30th46.6%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).