Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights
TV SCRIPPS, SN·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
30%Flames
to win
70%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.4–3.6
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.481vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.127vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK-.091vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
- Back-to-backfavors CGYCGY played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).