Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers
TV SN-PIT, SNW·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Penguins
to win
49%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.510vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signaleven.036vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM-.237vs.037GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
- Back-to-backfavors PITEDM played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.543rd
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 3.1524th
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 24.1%7th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 81.4%6th
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 48.2%24th
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).