Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, SN·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
40%Oilers
to win
60%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.504vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signaleven.040vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM.037vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT.475vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
- Back-to-backfavors EDMEDM played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.446th
- Goals for / game
- 3rd3.54
- 3.2325th
- Goals against / game
- 24th3.15
- 30.6%1st
- Power play
- 7th24.1%
- 77.8%20th
- Penalty kill
- 6th81.4%
- 52.6%6th
- Faceoffs
- 24th48.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).