Washington Capitals at Montréal Canadiens
TV MNMT, TSN2·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Capitals
to win
52%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.516vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH.013vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.169vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.355vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6041% to start175 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · MTL Martin St. Louis
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).