Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, TSN2·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Canadiens
to win
55%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.515vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.072vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.129vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
- Back-to-backfavors MTLMTL and WSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · WSH Spencer Carbery
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).