Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes
TV ESPN+, HULU·Lenovo Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Avalanche
to win
53%
Hurricanes
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.542win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.1625v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors CAR.337vs.8605v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CARCAR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Hurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/6053% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/6028% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/6020% to start58 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · CAR Rod Brind'Amour
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127
S. Aho80 - Goals
- AssistsS. Aho53
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 2nd3.55
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 5th2.88
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 4th24.9%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 11th80.5%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 16th50.1%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).