Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
TV MNMT, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Capitals
to win
56%
Panthers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.492win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors FLA.013vs-.0145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs-.046GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH.355vs.2275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors FLAFLA at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Panthers
Jacob Markstrom-0.04 GSAx/6075% to start608 career GP
Akira Schmid-0.08 GSAx/6025% to start92 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · FLA Paul Maurice
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).