Panthers at Capitals — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Panthers at Capitals

Florida Panthers(40-38-4)

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ESTTV MNMT, SCRIPPS·Capital One Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

44%

Panthers

to win

56%

Capitals

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH
.492vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors FLA
-.014vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
-.046vs.165GSAx / 60
Home icefavors WSH
WSH at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Panthers

Jacob Markstrom-0.04 GSAx/60
75% to start608 career GP
Akira Schmid-0.08 GSAx/60
25% to start92 career GP

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: FLA Paul Maurice · WSH Spencer Carbery

Leaders

vs

S. Reinhart
61
Points
A. Tuch
66
S. Reinhart
29
Goals
A. Tuch
33
B. Tkachuk
37
Assists
D. Strome
39

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.0018th
Goals for / game: 15th3.18; 3.3428th
Goals against / game: 7th2.90; 19.5%19th
Power play: 25th17.8%; 81.0%9th
Penalty kill: 14th80.1%; 46.8%29th
Faceoffs: 20th49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 7@
Nov 27@this game
Feb 3@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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