Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights
TV MNMT2, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
36%Capitals
to win
64%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.516vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.013vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.169vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.355vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6041% to start175 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · VGK Ryan Craig
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.1815th
- Goals for / game
- 14th3.22
- 2.907th
- Goals against / game
- 12th2.95
- 17.8%25th
- Power play
- 6th24.6%
- 80.1%14th
- Penalty kill
- 7th81.4%
- 49.3%20th
- Faceoffs
- 12th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).