Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, SCRIPPS·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Golden Knights
to win
50%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.514vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH-.050vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · WSH Spencer Carbery
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2214th
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 2.9512th
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 24.6%6th
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 81.4%7th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 51.0%12th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).