Montréal Canadiens at Calgary Flames
TV SNW, TSN2·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Canadiens
to win
48%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.515vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL-.072vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs.016GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.431vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.407th
- Goals for / game
- 32nd2.54
- 3.0616th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 23.1%10th
- Power play
- 31st16.2%
- 78.2%18th
- Penalty kill
- 12th80.4%
- 51.0%11th
- Faceoffs
- 21st49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).