Calgary Flames at Montréal Canadiens
TV SN, TVAS·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Flames
to win
58%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.481vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL-.127vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.016vs.129GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5432nd
- Goals for / game
- 7th3.40
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 16th3.06
- 16.2%31st
- Power play
- 10th23.1%
- 80.4%12th
- Penalty kill
- 18th78.2%
- 49.3%21st
- Faceoffs
- 11th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).