Flames at Maple Leafs — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Flames at Maple Leafs

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Toronto Maple Leafs(32-36-14)

Tue, Jan 26, 7:00 PM ESTTV SNW, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

46%

Flames

to win

54%

Maple Leafs

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.481vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TOR
-.127vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR
.016vs.052GSAx / 60
Projected lineupseven
-.091vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors TOR
TOR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/60
70% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/60
30% to start176 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · TOR Jim Hiller

Leaders

vs

M. Coronato
45
Points
W. Nylander
79
M. Frost
22
Goals
J. Tavares
31
M. Coronato
27
Assists
W. Nylander
49

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.5432nd
Goals for / game: 16th3.07; 3.1221st
Goals against / game: 31st3.60; 16.2%31st
Power play: 15th21.3%; 80.4%12th
Penalty kill: 8th81.2%; 49.3%21st
Faceoffs: 3rd54.2%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 26@
Jan 26@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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