Maple Leafs at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Maple Leafs at Flames

Toronto Maple Leafs(32-36-14)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Mon, Oct 26, 8:30 PM EDTTV SN+·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

47%

Maple Leafs

to win

53%

Flames

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.479vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TOR
-.113vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR
.052vs.016GSAx / 60
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/60
70% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/60
30% to start176 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

W. Nylander
79
Points
M. Coronato
45
J. Tavares
31
Goals
M. Frost
22
W. Nylander
49
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.0716th
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 3.6031st
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 21.3%15th
Power play: 31st16.2%; 81.2%8th
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 54.2%3rd
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 26@this game
Jan 26@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Sign in to join the chat.